Analyst: Ibukun Omoyeni* i.omoyeni@vetiva.com Global macro dynamics continue to point to sustained currency pressures. Disruptions in the Red Sea and via the Suez Canal is contributing to elevated oil. Oil prices have risen beyond $80/barrel in recent times, on the back of economic stimulus from China, stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP growth in the U.S., cooling U.S....
Analyst: Ibukun Omoyeni* i.omoyeni@vetiva.com Headline inflation rose by +98bps to 29.90% y/y in January, representing a 13bps deviation from our in-house estimate (Vetiva: 30.03% y/y) and a 40bps print above Bloomberg consensus’ estimate of 29.5%. We attribute the increase to the lingering effects of past reforms and more importantly, the security challenges in food-producing states....
Analyst: Ibukun Omoyeni*I.omoyeni@vetiva.com Lower oil prices moderate inflation in most SSA economies In 2023, headline inflation fell in 6 out of the top 10 economies in Africa. This can be linked to lower energy prices. The largest decline was recorded in Angola (-8.1 ppts), Ethiopia (-3.6 ppts) and South Africa (-0.9 ppts). The largest uptick...
Analyst: Ibukun Omoyeni* Consumer price inflation ascended to 28.92% y/y, 20bps lower than our estimate (Vetiva: 29.12% y/y) and 72bps above the prior month (Nov23: 28.20% y/y). This represents the highest turnout since August 1996. We attribute the turnout to elevated transport prices, impediments in the agricultural sector, and year-end festivities. On a month-on-month basis,...
From tight ropes to turning points The global economic landscape in 2024 is painted with mixed hues. While anxieties over inflation and recession linger, whispers of a slowdown in major economies offer some potential relief. However, simmering tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Hamas, cast a shadow over this fragile optimism… In...
Analyst: Ibukun Omoyeni* In Q3’23, Nigeria’s real GDP growth slowed to 2.54% y/y, 9bps lower than our estimate (Vetiva: 2.63% y/y) and 30bps higher than the prior year (Q3’23: 2.25% y/y). We attribute this outcome to better oil production outcome, improved embrace of digital financial services platforms, and the negative passthrough of subsidy removal to...