Ibukun Omoyeni* i.omoyeni@vetiva.com In the second meeting of the year, the Cardoso-led Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Monetary Policy Rate by 200bps to 24.75% and adjusted the asymmetric corridor around the MPR to +100/-300bps. While the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) for commercial banks was left unchanged at 45%, the Committee raised the CRR of...
Analyst: Ibukun Omoyeni i.omoyeni@vetiva.com The Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently introduced a valuable tool for understanding Nigerians’ access to healthy food, the Cost of Healthy Diet (CoHD) Index. This index sheds light on the affordability of a nutritious diet, offering insights beyond traditional inflation measures. The CoHD reflects the least expensive combination of locally...
Analyst: Ibukun Omoyeni*i.omoyeni@vetiva.com Inflation nudges to 31.7%, a new 27-year high Headline inflation rose by +180bps to 31.70% y/y in February (January: 29.90% y/y). This outturn is a 40bps print above Bloomberg consensus’ estimate of 31.30% y/y (Vetiva: 31.12% y/y). We attribute the surge to sustained security challenges in food producing states. On a monthly...
Analyst: Ibukun Omoyeni* i.omoyeni@vetiva.com Global macro dynamics continue to point to sustained currency pressures. Disruptions in the Red Sea and via the Suez Canal is contributing to elevated oil. Oil prices have risen beyond $80/barrel in recent times, on the back of economic stimulus from China, stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP growth in the U.S., cooling U.S....
Analyst: Ibukun Omoyeni* i.omoyeni@vetiva.com Headline inflation rose by +98bps to 29.90% y/y in January, representing a 13bps deviation from our in-house estimate (Vetiva: 30.03% y/y) and a 40bps print above Bloomberg consensus’ estimate of 29.5%. We attribute the increase to the lingering effects of past reforms and more importantly, the security challenges in food-producing states....
Analyst: Ibukun Omoyeni*I.omoyeni@vetiva.com Lower oil prices moderate inflation in most SSA economies In 2023, headline inflation fell in 6 out of the top 10 economies in Africa. This can be linked to lower energy prices. The largest decline was recorded in Angola (-8.1 ppts), Ethiopia (-3.6 ppts) and South Africa (-0.9 ppts). The largest uptick...