Category Archives: Macroeconomics

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June 2024 Inflation Inflation peaked in June, likely to moderate in July Inflation rose faster than anticipated to 34.19% y/y in June 2024 (May’24: 33.95% y/y). This outturn was 19bps above Bloomberg consensus estimate of 34.00% y/y (Vetiva: 33.97% y/y). We attribute the surprise outturn to the brief disruptive impact of union agitations on the...

Ibukun Omoyeni* i.omoyeni@vetiva.com Inflation may likely peak in June In May, headline inflation rose by 26bps to 33.95% y/y (Apr’24: 33.69% y/y). The outturn was 55bps below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 34.50% y/y (Vetiva: 34.28% y/y). We attribute the mild uptick to the fiscal intervention in the commodity market, and relative stability in the...

Analyst: Ibukun Omoyeni*  i.omoyeni@vetiva.com Foreign Exchange Not out of the woods yet Rising geopolitical tensions have led to elevated oil prices, contributing to sticky inflation in the United States. This, in turn, has delayed the pivot in monetary policy as the Fed maintains constant benchmark rates. The regime of higher-for-longer rates implies that emerging and...