Ibukun Omoyeni* i.omoyeni@vetiva.com Inflation may likely peak in June In May, headline inflation rose by 26bps to 33.95% y/y (Apr’24: 33.69% y/y). The outturn was 55bps below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 34.50% y/y (Vetiva: 34.28% y/y). We attribute the mild uptick to the fiscal intervention in the commodity market, and relative stability in the...
Analyst: Ibukun Omoyeni* i.omoyeni@vetiva.com Foreign Exchange Not out of the woods yet Rising geopolitical tensions have led to elevated oil prices, contributing to sticky inflation in the United States. This, in turn, has delayed the pivot in monetary policy as the Fed maintains constant benchmark rates. The regime of higher-for-longer rates implies that emerging and...
Analyst: Ibukun Omoyeni* i.omoyeni@vetiva.com Fortune favours the bold Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is estimated to improve by 0.4 ppts y/y to 3.8% in 2024, driven by a rebound among oil exporters and stable but high growth outcomes from diversified economies. Power outages weighed on growth in South Africa, while extended downtimes in the oil sector...
Analyst: Ibukun Omoyeni*i.omoyeni@vetiva.com In the third meeting of the year, the Cardoso-led Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Monetary Policy Rate by 150bps to 26.25%, leaving other rates constant. In line with the Governor’s guidance at the 2023 Banker’s Committee dinner, the apex bank has delivered a cumulative 750bps hike in H1’24, in a bid...
Analyst: Moshood Salaudeen* m.salaudeen@vetiva.com Inflation eases in top SSA economies, as food prices decline In April 2024, 8 out of the top 10 SSA economies experienced a decline in their headline inflation rate. We highlight that this moderation was driven by a fall in the prices of food across these economies. The average inflation rate...
Analyst: Moshood Salaudeen* m.salaudeen@vetiva.com Inflation remains elevated in top SSA economies In February, headline inflation moderated in 5 out of the top 10 economies in Africa, compared to 4 in January. Notable declines were recorded in Morocco (-2.0ppts), Ethiopia (-1.2ppts), Kenya (-0.6ppts), and Ghana (-0.3ppts). The largest upticks were observed in Egypt (+5.9ppts), Angola (+2.1ppts),...